Zoomlion (000157) ‘s 2019 performance forecast comment: 2019 performance forecast is higher than expected and full growth momentum

Zoomlion (000157) ‘s 2019 performance forecast comment: 2019 performance forecast is higher than expected and full growth momentum

The report reads the company’s announcement of the 2019 performance forecast, and the report realized a net net profit of 4.43 billion to 4.5 billion yuan, an increase of 112.

89% -122.


The performance of the investment points achieved the expected growth slightly higher than expected, and the 20-year performance is still 淡水桑拿网 strong. Based on past experience, the performance is likely to fall in the forecast center.

Looking at the income side of the performance beyond expectations, due to the environmental protection of the country rising from five to six, the limit is tightened, and the sales of truck cranes and concrete plates exceeded expectations. From the perspective of the expenses, the company’s financial costs have decreased significantly due to long-term repayment and lower financing costs.Therefore, the net profit margin was slightly higher than our expectation, and the profitability was significantly enhanced.

Next year ‘s growth remains optimistic. Due to the extreme environmental protection, pump trucks and mixers will still maintain high growth. Tower cranes continue to benefit from prefabricated construction. At present, orders have reached close to annual revenue. High machinery will begin to increase volume next year, and the overall revenue growth rate can be expected.On the cost side, the company focuses on promoting high-margin products, and the gross profit margin has further room for improvement. Due to the integration of business units, financing costs have dropped, and the three rates have gradually increased, which can fully replace the impact of allocating incentive expenses.

The long-term growth momentum is sufficient, and the short-term infrastructure catalysis is favorable for the next 2-3 years. Downstream industry upgrades, environmental protection limits, equipment inventory renewal needs are released, and core driving forces in industries such as manual replacement will continue to support downstream demand for construction machinery. The company’s three major sectorsThe growth momentum is sufficient, and the long-term space for high-end machinery and agricultural machinery is huge.

In the short term, the 20-year special debt will be issued ahead of schedule, and infrastructure investment will pick up in the first quarter. The sales of construction machinery in the first quarter is still expected to exceed expectations.

Profit forecast and estimated increase in the countercyclical adjustment of infrastructure and actual marginal relaxation. The downstream demand for construction machinery is solid, and the company has grown sufficiently to replace the distribution of incentive management fees. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers in 19-21 will be 4.4 billion, 54Billion, 6.1 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.

57, 0.

69, 0.

79 yuan / share, PE is 11, 9, 8 times, maintaining the “buy” level.

Risk reminder: The aggressive credit sales of OEMs bring bad debt risk.