Shanmei International (600546): Optimized asset quality, optimized performance, expected jump growth
The company’s two main businesses are potential profitable coal mining and coal trading that has suffered huge losses in recent years.
The self-produced coal business is expected to contribute approximately 19 net profit to the parent on the basis of volume appreciation.
0 ppm; the decomposed trading subsidiary has been gradually divided, and the risk of bad debts left over from history is gradually being cleared. It is expected that the replacement of this sector will narrow significantly to 7.
Below 0 billion.
There is a breakthrough in the improvement of the company’s asset quality, which is expected to achieve a jump in performance, and there are expected capital operation expectations. The increase in holdings by the controlling shareholder also shows confidence in the company’s long-term development.
We estimate the 19-year EPS at 10xPE with a target price of 5.
7 yuan, 30% more space than the previous period, maintaining the “strongly recommended -A” level.
The actual production capacity of self-produced coal will reach 3600 indicators / year, and the output will maintain a steady growth.
The company currently has 11 pairs of mines in production. In 2019, 3 pairs of construction mines will be successively put into operation, and the actual production capacity will reach 3600 each year.
It is prudent to predict that the short-term commercial coal output in the next three years will be 3356/3471/3576, and the equity output will reach 2,089 / 2161/2227 instead, further creating historical expectations.
The cost of self-produced coal is leading in the industry and the profitability is outstanding.
The Shanxi Coal Group was set up late among the seven major coal companies in Shanxi. The company does not need the social burden of the company. In addition, the main mine has a high degree of mechanization. The cost of self-produced coal has a significant advantage in the industry.
It is expected that future mining costs and full costs will be further reduced to below 140/220 yuan / ton.
Previously, the average annual price of Q5500 and Changzhi injection coal in Qingang was 600 and 900 yuan / ton, and the net profit per ton of coal could be maintained at more than 80 yuan / ton. The contribution of the coal sector 天津夜网 to the mother net profit was about 19.
The preliminary basic profit and loss balance, and the trading assets are gradually optimized.
At present, it has generally improved, but it is still at the bottom of the cyclical cycle. It is prudent to predict that the company will gradually realize the future profit and loss of the business.
The company’s Air Force trade volume deflections, but its negligence in control caused serious bad debt problems.
In the early stage, the burden of this historical legacy has been gradually cleared. At the same time, the company has begun to cooperate with the environmental protection of property and revitalize the existing trading assets.
It is expected that the trading business will narrow to 7 in the future.
Below 100,000 yuan, reducing the drag on overall performance.
南宁桑拿 Capital operation is one step ahead, and the main business is expected to be listed as a whole.
The company has completed the acquisition of 51% equity of Hequ Open-pit Coal Mine controlled by the Group, with a performance increase of more than 238%.
At present, there are still 360 years of high-quality coal production / deposit within the group, with overall listing and refinancing expectations.
Profit forecast and investment rating.
The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.
76 yuan / share, 414 changes in ten years.
9% / 11.
5% / 20.
The current price of coal shows reasonable expectations, which is gradually dispelling the market’s pessimistic expectations, and the company’s asset quality is being significantly optimized.
We estimate it at 10xPE and the target is expected to be 5.
7 yuan, there is currently room for more than 30% growth, maintaining the “strongly recommended -A” level.
Risk reminder: coal price rises sharply; accrues large bad debt reductions; litigation results do not benefit the company