Changan Automobile (000625): Autonomy continues to exceed expectations Ford turns positive in a few years

Changan Automobile (000625): Autonomy continues to exceed expectations Ford turns positive in a few years
Key Investment Events: The company released its December production and sales report, and the overall production and sales in December was 19.7/19.40,000, at least +83.5% / 31.0%, the chain ratios are -1.7% / + 9.8%, autonomous performance continued to exceed expectations.  The overall sales growth rate is expected to quickly surpass the industry, and independent sales continue to exceed expectations.The 武汉夜生活网 company ‘s overall wholesale and wholesale price in December + 31%, and according to the data of the Federation of Trade Unions, the wholesale and wholesale price in the first half of December is -5%.Independent wholesale 15.0 million vehicles, + 35% a year, +11.6%, CS75 / CS35 / CS55 / Yidong monthly sales of 2.86/1.64/1.11/1.30,000 units, +288% / + 21% / + 32% / + 98% a year, respectively. The CS75 series performs well. In addition to improving product competitiveness, it is also expected to be affected by the peak season before the Spring Festival.In the future, with the increase in the penetration rate of blue whale engines and 7DCT powertrains, independent sales and the growth of bicycle profits will both increase, and the profit release cycle will be welcomed.  Ford’s monthly sales have changed for the first time, and Mazda’s sales have remained solid.Changan Ford wholesale in December 1.790,000 vehicles, +0 per year.7%, -4.7%, which is the first time that monthly sales in 19 years have turned positive. In addition to the base number, Ford’s new SUV launched in December is also an important reason.Combined with November / December production of 2 respectively.65/3.210,000 vehicles, the output continues to exceed the sales volume, it is expected that the replenishment is mainly due to the stocking season before the Spring Festival.As the Lincoln Adventurer’s pre-sale resale officially goes on sale, new vehicles such as Ford Explorer, Lincoln Voyager, and Pilot continue to be launched, and Ford’s performance is expected to gradually improve.Changan Mazda Wholesale December 1.260,000, +9 in the past.2%, +0.7%, relatively stable performance.  Breakthrough breakthroughs have been realized, and the autonomy + Ford cycle is strong, and Changan PSA will be extended soon, maintaining the “prudent increase” rating.With the introduction of Lincoln’s first domestic SUV adventurer, the introduction of new pre-sale vehicles, Changfu’s new Sharp SUV was launched, and Changan Ford’s sales and profits have continued to improve.At the same time, new models such as the self-owned brand CS75plus continued to sell well, PSA’s equity changes were realized in advance (announced on January 1, 2020), and other mixed reform businesses continued to advance, and the company’s overall operating performance promoted continuous improvement.Taking into account the smooth divestment of Changan PSA, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 19-21 is expected to be -13.9/41.8/52.80,000 yuan, maintaining the “prudent increase” rating risk reminder: Ford’s new car sales are not good, the profitability of its own brand recovery is less than expected